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August 2010

“Why Baby Costs Less Down the Road in Silicon Valley,” Bloomberg News, August 20, 2010

The federal Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is looking for $500 billion in savings over the next decade to help pay for extending coverage to 32 million uninsured Americans. Yet it doesn’t address the problem of market concentration -- and may make it worse, said Robert Berenson, a physician and policy analyst at the Urban Institute in Washington, D.C.
“Healthways to manage chronic care for military,” The Tennessean (Nashville), August 19, 2010

Robert Berenson: “There’s really no good evidence that disease management really does save money, even if the Defense Department is doing it.”
“What’s costlier than a government run prison? A private one,” CNNMoney.com, August 18, 2010

The Urban Institute’s John Roman argues that at times private prisons also lack the incentive to help prepare inmates to return to society, leading to a higher rate of recidivism (inmates returning to prison) and a higher overall cost to the prison system.
“CONSUMER FINANCE: Unemployment Hits Your Wallet For A Long Time,” MarketWatch, August 18, 2010

The long-term negative effects of unemployment can take different dimensions, said Harry Holzer, an economist at Georgetown and the Urban Institute. There will be earnings losses, and kids may have trouble in school, he and other economists said.
“End to COBRA subsidy means higher health insurance bills,” Kaiser Health News, August 18, 2010

“There is a huge backlash,” says Randy Bovbjerg, a health policy expert at the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank. While the COBRA subsidy was helpful to those who qualified, most of the unemployed were not eligible, he says. They did not work for a large company that provided benefits before being laid off, or they lost their job before the subsidies began. Employers with 20 or more employees are required to offer COBRA under federal law. Most states have laws that also include smaller employers. “People are mad, and people see the recovery only helping the big companies, banks and high earners.”
“Positive Signs for Some Relocated CHA Residents,” Chicago Magazine blog, August 18, 2010

But last week, [Susan] Popkin and some colleagues released an in-depth study that found life is markedly better now for the families who were moved out of the Ida B. Wells and Madden Park housing developments (the linked complexes were known as Madden-Wells). “There’s been a real, positive impact on the well-being of the people who left there,” Popkin says. “They live in better housing in safer neighborhoods, their quality of life is better, and their stress levels are down.”
“How to Retire Gradually,” USNews.com, August 17, 2010 

Workers are becoming much more likely to partially retire before exiting the workforce completely. Among employees born between 1933 and 1937, 45 percent of men and 41 percent of women partially retired after age 50, compared with 33 percent and 25 percent, respectively, 20 years earlier, according to a recent Urban Institute analysis.
“Will the health reform law slow spending?” ModernHealthcare.com, August 16, 2010

A newly published paper by the Urban Institute says the Independent Payment Advisory Board, with the power to dictate to Congress spending targets for Medicare, may be one of the most important cost-containment tools to come out of the health reform law. As Stephen Zuckerman, a senior fellow for the public policy not-for-profit organization, explains, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act gives Congress leeway on how to achieve the advisory board’s recommended savings—but they must achieve the savings. “Congress would not have the ability to ignore the IPAB recommendations in the interest of protecting provider payments,” he says.
“Are bigger health-care networks better or just creating a monopoly?” Washington Post, August 16, 2010

Robert Berenson: “The problem of provider market power is not just about ACOs [accountable care organizations], but ACOs may make it worse. Hospitals everywhere want to become ACOs. Whether they see this as a potential for raising prices, I don’t know, but some of them would.”
"Will the health reform law slow spending? " Modern Healthcare, August 16, 2010

A newly published paper by the Urban Institute says the Independent Payment Advisory Board, with the power to dictate to Congress spending targets for Medicare, may be one of the most important cost-containment tools to come out of the health reform law.

As Stephen Zuckerman, a senior fellow for the public policy not-for-profit organization, explains, "Congress would not have the ability to ignore the IPAB recommendations in the interest of protecting provider payments."
“Dems may use food stamp money to pay for Michelle Obama’s nutrition initiative,” The Hill, August 14, 2010

“It’s very sad. I think it’s just illustrating what dire straits our federal government budget is in,” said Sheila Zedlewski, director of the Urban Institute’s Income and Benefits Center. “It’s unprecedented to raid one safety net program to feed another.”
"Social Security Turns 75: How Healthy Is It?" AOL News, August 12, 2010

Eugene Steuerle, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Urban Institute, said in a recent report that spiraling retirement payouts will be made worse by a worker-to-retiree ratio that is expected to drop to 2-to-1by the 2030s. Longer life expectancy and a move toward earlier retirement have increased the amount of money the government pays to seniors over a lifetime.
"Will Obama Pull a Clinton?" TheAtlantic.com, August 12, 2010

Eric Toder: "The dire warnings that the 1993 tax increases would 'crush small business' and 'kill jobs' never materialized."
"Most High Earners Wouldn't See Big Bill From Tax Rise," Bloomberg, August 12, 2010

For those who earn less than $500,000, the tax increase is “relatively low,” said Roberton Williams, an economist with the Urban Institute in Washington who studied the report. “It’s less than 1 percent.”
"Foreclosure Counseling For One Million, And Counting," CBS Monewatch.com, August 12, 2010

According to an independent evaluation of the NFMC Program by the Urban Institute, homeowners who received counseling through NeighborWorks were 60 percent more likely to avoid losing their home to foreclosure than homeowners who do not seek counseling.

NFMC Program clients were more likely to receive a loan modification, and on average, saved $454 more on their monthly mortgage payments per month, than homeowners who received modifications but did not work with a counselor.
"Debate over tax increases effects on small businesses sounds familiar," The Hill, On the Money blog, August 9, 2010

Of the 36 million taxpayers who will report business income it is estimated that 900,000, or 2.5 percent, would pay higher rates if the Bush tax cuts were allowed to expire for the top brackets, according to [the Tax Policy Center]. “However, that relative handful of business owners will report $400 billion, or almost 44 percent of all the business income included in individual returns," a TPC report said.
"Foreclosures Can Be Chaotic For Children," NPR, Talk of the Nation, August 9, 2010

Kathryn Pettit: There's three ways that kids are affected by foreclosure. First is just the family turmoil… that can happen even before the move actually occurs. The next one is kids have to switch neighborhoods or schools, and that dislocation can affect their educational progress and social development. And finally, kids living in neighborhoods or schools where this is happening. So their families may not even be in foreclosure, but they are still being impacted by their surrounding area.
"Stimulus' success hard to track," Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, August 8, 2010

Donald Marron: "Just because stimulus money supported a job doesn't mean that job is owed to the stimulus package. Maybe you would've had that job anyway."
“From Florida To Oregon, Medicare Advantage's Benefits – And Cuts – Vary,” Kaiser Health News, August 6, 2010

Robert A. Berenson, a researcher at the Urban Institute, said that “paying (Medicare Advantage plans) 95 percent leaves plenty of room for benefit and profits.” That’s because insurers can use their clout to negotiate better deals from doctors and hospitals, and direct patients to the least expensive care, he said.
“Why Higher Taxes Wouldn't Kill Small Business,” TheAtlantic.com, Derek Thompson’s blog, August 6, 2010

Howard Gleckman from the Tax Policy Center finds that of the 36 million taxpayers who report income from Schedule C, E, or F (that is, as sole proprietors, members of an S corporation, or on a farm), "only 900,000, or 2.5 percent, would pay higher rates if the Bush tax cuts were allowed to expire for those in the top brackets." Two and a half percent. If those projections are right, it would mean that the Bush tax cuts would affect the same share of small businesses as it would American households. An interesting thought.
“Wonkbook: State aid passes Senate; static kill succeeds; no more secret holds?,” Washingtonpost.com, Ezra Klein’s blog, August 6, 2010

The Joint Committee on Taxation found that only 3% of Americans who report small business income through their individual returns would be affected by the Obama administration's tax plan. Yet those 3% represent about half of all small business income reported on individual returns. The Tax Policy Center found that of the wealthiest tax filers - the top 1% - about 25% earned more than half their income from businesses.
"If we put students first, bad teachers are first to go," USA Today, August 5, 2010

Jane Hannaway: Differences in teacher effectiveness, as measured by tested student achievement gains, are huge. Strong teachers get nearly triple the results that weak teachers get with their students.
“ADP Estimates Companies in U.S. Added 42,000 Jobs,” Bloomberg, August 4, 2010

“You don’t get the sense that residential construction has changed that much in the past decade,” says Harry J. Holzer, an economist at Georgetown University and the Urban Institute in Washington. The skills needed to work at a grocery or clothing store -- running the cash register, for instance -- are “rudimentary,” he says.
“Will state budget cuts blunt the recovery?,” Christian Science Monitor, August 3, 2010

"I understand the long-term concerns," said Kim Rueben, senior fellow at the Urban Institute in Washington. "But if they pull back too much now, the fact that the states are going to do things like increase taxes and make spending cuts, that's going to exacerbate the decline from stimulus."
“The red-hot debate over raising the retirement age,” CNNMoney.com, August 2, 2010 

"The full retirement age would have to increase to 73 for adults to have the same expected years of remaining life in retirement today as in 1940," Urban Institute senior research associate Melissa Favreault and senior fellow Richard Johnson note in their research.

"It's wishful thinking to assume that we could raise the retirement age and protect everyone," Johnson said.
“Debate on death and taxes heats up as billionaires fall,” Agence France Presse, August 1, 2010

Bob Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center of the Brookings Institution and Urban Institute said that in 2009, when estates faced a 45 percent tax rate, "giving away a dollar cost only 55 cents after taxes" but that "this year, with no estate tax and thus no tax savings, that cost nearly doubled to a full dollar."

July 2010

"The Gray and The Brown: The Generational Mismatch; A contrast in priorities is arising between nonwhite young voters and white, older voters," National Journal, July 24, 2010

One further irony is that older whites will increasingly depend on the payroll taxes paid by younger minorities to fund Social Security and Medicare benefits. Demographic experts such as the Urban Institute's Robert Lerman project that the number of whites in the workforce will decline over the coming decades, and that all of the increase in the labor market will come among minorities.
"Renewal of Bush tax cuts could be only temporary," Associated Press, July 22, 2010

It would cost $2.9 trillion over the next decade to extend all the tax cuts, including AMT relief, according to estimates from the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank.
"Are Tax Expenditures Evil?" TheAtlantic.com, July 21, 2010

Where do tax expenditures go? This graph from the Tax Policy Center breaks it down by category. The largest single expenditure is on employer-provided health care. The largest segment is commerce and housing.
"Democrats to Propose Extending Bush's Middle-Class Tax Cuts," Time, July 21, 2010

Democrats dispute the idea that mom-and-pop small businesses are making more than $200,000 a year. In fact, 94.5% of all "flow-through" entities (self-employed folks, who generally tend to be small businesses, though Tiger Woods also falls into this category) had receipts of under $100,000 in 2007, according to the Tax Policy Center.
"End of life care: More or less of it?" Marketplace, July 20, 2010

Howard Gleckman: At least a quarter of all Medicare money is spent on people in the last year of life, mostly in the last month. Much of this spending does help people live longer. But for many, it means being tethered to machines, taking experimental drugs and undergoing painful treatments.
"How Successful Is Teach for America?" The New York Times: Letters, July 16, 2010

Jane Hannaway: On average, we found, high school students taught by Teach for America corps members did significantly better on state-required tests than peers taught by far more experienced teachers, especially in science and math.

"U.S. Health Reform Starts to Take Hold: As changes roll out, polls show rising consumer sentiment amid spate of lawsuits challenging the overhaul," HealthDay, July 16, 2010

For those who had tried to purchase individual insurance until now, there were "huge issues with trying to find coverage for people who have health problems, and that is absolutely true for children," said economist Genevieve M. Kenney, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute in Washington, D.C. "Yes, maybe you would be able to get a policy but it might exclude the very health problem that the child suffers from."
"At last, talk turns serious on raising age to retire," St. Petersburg Times, July 16, 2010

The impending retirement of millions of baby boomers is no secret. Nor is the fact that they are expected to live — and collect benefits — far longer than their parents and grandparents. The number of workers supporting each retiree, currently 3.2, will drop under the current system to 2.1 by 2040, according to the Urban Institute research group in Washington.

Just raising the age to 70 won't make the system solvent, said Richard Johnson, the director of the institute's Retirement Policy Program. But it would help cut Social Security's long-term deficit and, in the near future, make it cheaper for the federal government to borrow money.

"It sends a signal to the credit markets,'' Johnson said.
"Tax-exempt status of many D.C.-area nonprofits at risk," Washington Examiner, July 16, 2010

Nationwide, more than 292,000 organizations -- 18 percent of the nation's nonprofits -- could lose their tax-exempt status, the Urban Institute reported.

Katie Roeger, co-author of the Urban Institute report, said the IRS might have had outdated addresses for many small organizations when they attempted to notify them of the new requirements.

"For a lot of these smaller applications that already operate on a small budget and with the economic situation, $400 is a huge amount," Roeger said.

Roeger estimated that about a quarter of nonprofit organizations on the "danger" list don't exist anymore.
"Brinkmanship Over the Bush Tax Cuts: High-income households could emerge as big winners," Bloomberg, July 15, 2010

Reluctant to break Obama's campaign promises, Democrats may blink and allow a one-year extension of the entire package. "The simplest solution this year would be to say 'we have a struggling economy; we don't want to raise taxes at all,' " says Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research group run by the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution.
"New Reports Predict Downturn in Federal Funding for Children," Youth Today, July 14, 2010

"Kids' Share 2010" estimates that from 2009 to 2019, 18 percent of Recovery Act money will benefit children and families, for a total of $156 billion doled out to such leading programs as Medicaid, Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, SNAP/food stamps, Head Start, earned income tax credit and state fiscal stabilization funds for education.

The "Kids' Share 2010" report predicts that states will be hit with a double whammy as Recovery funding runs out over the next 18 months and lean state budgets make it difficult to continue Recovery Act-funded programs.

"Despite a temporary boost in dollars as part of the Recovery Act, funding for children continues to face an uphill battle in the face of other budgetary pressures," Kids' Share 2010 co-author Eugene Steuerle, an Institute Fellow at the Urban Institute, said in a press statement.
"Jacob Lew Nominated To Head OMB," Kaiser Health News, Jul 13, 2010

Reischauer said the challenge [for Jacob Lew, the new Office of Management and Budget director] is not just the size of the deficit but deciding on the magnitude and timing of belt-tightening. "We're at a juncture where we're going to have shift gears from fast forward to reverse, and that's going to both technically and politically extremely difficult – deciding whether, when or how much."
"Tax Cuts for Wealthy May Get Reprieve if Democrats Blink," Bloomberg, Jul 13, 2010

The easiest option may be a one-year extension of the entire tax-cut package, said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. The Washington research group is run by the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. "The simplest solution this year would be to say ‘we have a struggling economy; we don't want to raise taxes at all,'" said Williams. "It's a compromise that would get things past the end of this year."
"U.S. Weighs Tax That Has VAT of Political Trouble," The Wall Street Journal, July 12, 2010

If you're looking for more revenue, I think raising rates under the current income tax probably is not a good idea and could do significant economic harm," says Eric Toder, a co-director of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center think tank. By contrast, a VAT "doesn't interfere with where goods are produced...and doesn't interfere with savings, investment and capital formation."
"Many Higher-Education Nonprofit Organizations Could Lose Tax-Exempt Status," Chronicle of Higher Education, July 8, 2010

Hundreds of nonprofit organizations affiliated with higher education, including local chapters of college alumni associations, have failed to file tax returns with the Internal Revenue Service and may lose their tax-exempt status, says a report released on Thursday by the Urban Institute's National Center for Charitable Statistics.
"Big challenges ahead for Berwick," Marketplace, July 7, 2010

Robert Berenson: "There's just too many studies that show that there's wasted [health care] spending, that it wouldn't be rationing to reduce spending for the things that don't serve anybody's purposes."
"Losing the Fight Against Child Poverty," FrumForum.com, July 6, 2010

The Urban Institute wants us to think about child poverty in a different way. They propose we look at child poverty not as a snapshot in time, but as a sequence over time. If we do, we'll see that more American children experience poverty than we might suppose – and that their odds of escape over time are much lower than we might hope.
"US taxes," Financial Times, July 5, 2010

The mortgage interest deduction allows a taxpayer to claim tax relief for interest paid on up to $1.1m of mortgage debt. In 2012 this will cost the Treasury $131bn, on estimates from the current administration's budget. And it is a tax break mainly for the rich: the Tax Policy Center notes that the value of the MID rises steadily with income, worth $91 annually for those on incomes below $40,000, rising to $5,459 for those making more than $250,000.
"Danger for Dems as economy slows," Politico, July 3, 2010

"The question is, can they [Democrats] create the perception that they have done all these things to create jobs, or that they tried but the dastardly Republicans prevented them from creating jobs?" said Howard Gleckman, a senior researcher on tax and budget policy for the Urban Institute. Both options, he said are likely to have similar political consequences come November. "The truth of the matter is that the unemployment rate between now and November is pretty much baked in the cake. It's not going to come down very much."
"Up in the Air: Your Taxes," Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2010

The now-lapsed estate tax will return in January 2011, with a 55% top rate and a $1.2 million exemption per individual, unless lawmakers act. It will hit about 44,000 estates, eight times as many as the 2009 version of the tax, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
"Taxpayers In Limbo," Forbes, July 2, 2010

It's not just taxpayers affected by the extenders package who may want to reassess their 2010 tax payments. Congress also has yet to pass an expensive ($66 billion for one year) "patch" to keep millions of middle-income folks out of the alternative minimum tax for 2010. If that isn't put in place, 29.9 million taxpayers will owe AMT in 2010, compared with 3.8 million in 2009, estimates the Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution.
"Jobless Benefits End, Senate Exits, History Repeats," NPR.org, July 2, 2010

Wayne Vroman: "There are more people right now collecting the extended benefits than the regular benefits."
"Jobless pay for US legislative stalemate," Financial Times, July 1, 2010

"Unemployment insurance is the primary safety net programme for people who involuntarily lose their jobs, which is a lot of people right now," says Harry Holzer, economist at Georgetown University and the Urban Institute in Washington. He argues that unemployment benefits offer good "bang-for-your-buck" for the government, since recipients will most likely spend the money immediately, pumping it back into the economy.

June 2010

"State's health coverage still high," Boston Globe, June 9, 2010

Massachusetts residents have largely been able to hang on to health insurance, despite the deep and lingering recession and widespread unemployment, according to a study released yesterday by the Urban Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
"Social Security's defenders wary of deficit reduction commission," The Washington Post, June 9, 2010

"We have scheduled our system to have roughly one-third of the adult population on Social Security for one-third of their adult lives," said Eugene Steuerle, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. "Is your 20th year in retirement a higher priority than educating your kids in the schools? Right now, our budget says yes."
"Ax may fall on tax break for mortgages," The Hill, June 8, 2010

Although the backers of the mortgage interest tax break defend it as a key incentive for people to own rather than rent their homes, some say that's not so. A Brookings-Urban Tax Policy Center study found that the mortgage interest tax break costs more than $100 billion annually but does little to encourage the middle class and less wealthy to buy homes. "I'm not sure that we need to subsidize homeownership at all through the tax system," said Eric Toder, the study's lead author.
"Texas Instruments Foundation to give Teach for America $750,000 to aid Dallas-Fort Worth schools," The Dallas Morning News, June 7, 2010

A 2008 Urban Institute study updated last year found that corps members have a positive effect on student achievement relative to other teachers, including experienced teachers, traditionally prepared teachers, and those fully certified in their field.
"Calling the tea party's bluff on Medicare,” The Seattle Times, June 4, 2010

A typical couple retiring in 2020 will have paid about $100,000 in lifetime Medicare taxes but will receive $500,000 in scheduled Medicare benefits over the premiums they pay to the program. This is according to C. Eugene Steuerle, a tax policy expert at the Urban Institute.

I asked Steuerle about the income taxes that many Medicare beneficiaries paid and continue to pay. He responded that "given the large deficits we're running and the benefit level relative to previous or current tax levels, there's still no doubt that current generations are being subsidized by future generations."
"Jail population declines for first time since '82," Associated Press, June 3, 2010

"County governments are looking at how they want to spend their resources and are deciding that maybe jail isn't the best place," said Nancy La Vigne of The Urban Institute. She said jails tend to house many people who are chronically homeless or have chronic mental illness and alcohol and substance addiction problems. "Communities may be using more non-jail alternatives now," said La Vigne, director of the institute's justice policy center.

La Vigne also suggested that prosecutors are increasingly seeking sentences that exceed one year — a practice that could boost the number of people serving time in state or federal prisons as opposed to local jails.
"Michigan's Medicaid costs could raise by 3%," Lansing State Journal (Mich.), June 1, 2010

"States that go slow are going to have lower increases in spending; they're going to cover fewer people," said John Holahan, director of the Urban Institute's Health Policy Research Center and the lead author of the report.

The Kaiser report did not look at other cost and savings factors. But Holahan said there could be considerable savings to states from things such as no longer having to pay for uncompensated care.
"What's your mortgage's tax value?," Bankrate.com, June 1, 2010

This disparity in the amount deducted in various parts of the United States seems to make the question raised by Howard Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center even more relevant. Gleckman wonders whether we should dump the home mortgage interest deduction.The deduction is popular from a tax perspective, says Gleckman, because it's believed that the tax break increases home ownership and motivates homeowners to be more engaged in their communities than renters.

What is certain, according to Gleckman, is that the mortgage interest deduction is not a very efficient way to encourage home ownership."

Most benefits go to high-income households that would probably buy a house with or without the deduction," says Gleckman. "Since nonitemizers get no benefit from the deduction, it is not surprising that most of the subsidy goes to upper-bracket taxpayers."

May 2010

"Ready to jump in? States advancing plans for high-risk insurance pools, but not everyone is ready—or willing—to make the dive," Modern Healthcare, May 31, 2010

Nearly half of the 15.6 million uninsured, nonelderly adults nationwide have at least one chronic health condition, according to the Urban Institute. In 2008, health plans denied more than 223,000 applicants for individual insurance policies, according to America's Health Insurance Plans, a trade group representing insurers.
"Medicaid Costs And The New Health Law," NPR, All Things Considered, May 28, 2010

John Holahan: The federal government will pay a very high share of new Medicaid spending in all states. The increases in state spending are pretty small compared to the increases in coverage and relative to what states would have spent if there had been no reform.
"Property Taxes: Savior or Satan?" TheAtlantic.com, May 27, 2010

Kim Rueben from the Tax Policy Center […] explains that property taxes are slow to come down as real estate prices decline. As a result, people are stuck paying higher property taxes than the new market value of their real estate would imply.
"Report: Number of Kentucky Medicaid patients will surge," Lexington Herald-Leader, May 27, 2010

Holahan said that since the federal government will pay much of the cost and states will no longer have to pay for caring for the uninsured, states will benefit by aggressively signing up Medicaid patients.

The study concluded that some states might not make efforts to enroll more citizens in Medicaid: "Some states may not aggressively implement health reform and, therefore, not see significant reductions in the uninsured."
"Center deems Wyden-Gregg tax reform revenue-neutral," The Hill, May 24, 2010

The Tax Policy Center on Monday found the tax reform bill authored by Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) would raise about as much revenue over the next 10 years as the current system, assuming all the tax breaks enacted under former President George W. Bush are extended and the 2009 AMT exemption level is indexed for inflation.
"Why Your 401(k) Still Hasn't Recovered," U.S. News & World Report, Money & Retirement blog, May 24, 2010

Investors haven't given up on their 401(k)'s. balances have rebounded this year, but are still below their 2007 peaks. 401(k)'s and IRAs held $7.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2010, up 23 percent since a trough of $5.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2009. Still, retirement account assets remain 17 percent below their 2007 value of just over $8.6 trillion and currently hold about the same amount they held in 2006, according to Urban Institute calculations.
"Big Gains for Young People in Health Law," The New York Times, May 24, 2010

"Over time, it may become less acceptable to go without health insurance, said Linda Blumberg, a senior fellow at Health Policy Center at the Urban Institute. "It's going to take time because the world doesn't turn on a dime," Dr. Blumberg said. "But I do believe the country is going to begin to shift culturally in a way that people are going to understand that the expectation — the norm — is that people are supposed to have health coverage."
"Today's Food Companies: The Quick and the Dead," TheAtlantic.com, May 20, 2010

More enlightened food marketers are getting the message that doing the right thing is in their best interests. Why are they lowering calories, fats, and sodium? The simple answer is: impending regulations…. And it has not been lost on marketers that health advocates and activists are reading from a new playbook published by the Urban Institute titled "Reducing Obesity: Policy Strategies from the Tobacco Wars."
"6 reasons retirements are being delayed," U.S. News and World Report, May 19, 2010

Some $7.9 trillion is held in retirement accounts, including 401k's and IRAs, up considerably from a low of $5.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2009, according to Urban Institute estimates. But retirement account balances are still far from their peak of $8.6 trillion in 2007, even as most employees continued to save in these accounts.
"FACT CHECK: Tax cut math doesn't add up for some," Associated Press, May 19, 2010

Consider small businesses: "The idea here is to target the credits to a relatively low number of firms, those who are low-wage and really quite small," said economist Linda Blumberg of the Urban Institute public policy center.
"Tax form deadline surprises nonprofits," Marketplace Morning Report, May 17, 2010

"It's clearly going to cause some pain for little nonprofit organizations that didn't have current addresses on file with the IRS and never got the word that they were required to file," says Tom Pollak, a senior research associate with the Urban Institute.
"Thousands of nonprofits may lose tax-exempt status," Associated Press, May 16, 2010

The Urban Institute's National Center for Charitable Statistics, which conducts economic and social policy research, estimated Friday that 214,000 nonprofit organizations haven't filed the form as required. Tom Pollak, program director for the center, said organizations that lose their tax-exempt status are no longer eligible to receive tax-deductible donations and are not likely to be awarded grants.
"Plan B: Skip College," New York Times, May 14, 2010

Robert Lerman: "Some of the people coming out of those apprenticeships are in more demand than college graduates, because they've actually managed things in the workplace."
Gold Glimmers As Nations Start Down The Road Of Insolvency," Forbes, May 13, 2010

We're rapidly approaching a point of no return, says our friend Gene Steuerle of the Urban Institute. "Both liberals who want to maintain spending programs and conservatives seeking to keep taxes low seem to think--or, at least, want to think--that economic growth can once again solve our problems."

No more. "In the past, fiscal imbalance was mainly a temporary, current issue only. Yes, congresses would occasionally spend much more than they collected in taxes, sometimes heedlessly. But as long as revenues over time rose with economic growth and most spending was discretionary, push never came to shove as long as the next congresses weren't too profligate.

"Now so much spending growth is built into law in permanent or mandatory programs that these programs essentially absorb all future revenues," says Steuerle.
"Number of runaways found to be more than thought: Shelter leader notes many in Houston area have fled homes multiple times," The Houston Chronicle, May 13, 2010

Nearly one in five children — 19 percent — run away before turning 18, says an Urban Institute report released this week that examines lifetime chances of running away.

The report is based on survey answers from a nationally representative sample of 1,168 children followed from initial interviews in 1997 at 12 years old through age 18.

"They actually run much younger than we would think," said study author Michael Pergamit, a senior research associate at the Washington-based, nonpartisan economic and social research organization. "They run multiple times, and when we take these one-year shots, we see them after they've gone through these experiences."

The surveyed teens would be about 25 years old today, but Pergamit said his research remains relevant even without more recent national data.

"I don't think that the underlying causes or numbers would be very different if you looked today — and things have certainly not changed for the better," he said.
"Population health a key factor in Medicare cost differences, study finds," Modern Healthcare, May 13, 2010

Population health plays a larger role in geographic differences in Medicare spending than previously thought, according to a study from George Mason University and the Urban Institute.

The findings show that "geographic differences in Medicare spending are not necessarily evidence of inefficiency in healthcare," said Stephen Zuckerman, a senior fellow in the Urban Institute's Health Policy Center and the lead author of the study, in a written statement.

"Our study shows that an individual's health explains almost one-third of the difference in Medicare spending per beneficiary between the highest and lowest cost areas, while previous studies have assigned a smaller role to health measures," Zuckerman said.
"A Better Kind of Bank Tax," The Atlantic, May 13, 2010

This is a wacky idea, indeed. And Kocherlakota acknowledges that it's wacky idea. But it's kind of fascinating too. "To me it makes a lot more sense than taxing bigness," says the Tax Policy Center's Howard Gleckman "because bigness isn't necessarily bad. It's what you do with your bigness that can hurt you. It's a smarter way to look at this issue of risk. But whether it would work, I have no idea."
"Don't like your diagnosis? Maybe you should move," Reuters, May 12, 2010

Differences in spending may simply reflect regional differences in health, a team from George Mason University and the Urban Institute in Virginia reported in a separate study.

"Our study shows that an individual's health explains almost one-third of the difference in Medicare spending per beneficiary between the highest and lowest cost areas," Stephen Zuckerman of the Urban Institute's Health Policy Center said in a statement.

Zuckerman said conventional wisdom about large, unexplained geographic differences in Medicare spending overstate the problem and could wrongly reward or penalize certain areas.
"More runaways citing economy," USA Today, May 12, 2010

"Many say they didn't run away, but they were thrown out," says Michael Pergamit, an economist at the Urban Institute who interviewed 83 teens in Chicago and Los Angeles for the report.

Nearly half, or 48%, told him they were thrown out of their homes; 30% said they ran away; and 22% said it was a mix of the two.

One in five children will run away at least once by age 18, Pergamit found in a separate report released today by the Urban Institute.

Pergamit analyzed the data of 1,168 12-year-olds who were first interviewed in 1997 and then tracked for six years as part of the federally funded National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

He found that half of the youth who run away do so before 14 and do so at least twice. He says they include slightly more girls than boys and far more white and black youths than Hispanics.

Pergamit says these youth "couch surf" — first staying with friends and relatives before ending up in shelters or on the street.

"They get money from friends," he says, adding that most don't resort to panhandling, prostitution or selling drugs. Data on runaways, however, are limited, he says. "We don't really know."
"Tax bills in 2009 at lowest level since 1950," USA Today, May 11, 2010

The lower tax burden should last at least through 2010, says Roberton Williams of the Tax Policy Center, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "Virtually all the stimulus tax cuts expire at the end of the year," he says. "So the key decision is whether to extend them into 2011."
"HENSARLING: Obama's 'no tax hike' pledge on the line President must either cut spending or increase taxes," The Washington Times, May 11, 2010

What if Congress intervened and tried to limit tax increases to just those households earning $250,000 or more annually? A study by the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center estimated that to reduce the deficit to 2 percent of GDP under the administration's baseline, in 2019 those households making over $250,000 would see the top two marginal tax rates rise to 85.7 percent and 90.9 percent.

Former CBO Director Robert Reischauer testified before the commission that the fiscal crisis is so serious that, "raising taxes on the rich or corporations ... simply won't be enough." Another former CBO head, Rudolph Penner, told the commission that if we maintain current federal spending patterns and stabilize the debt at 60 percent of GDP, the U.S. total tax burden would be higher than today's Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development average by midcentury and that a few years after that we would be "the highest-taxed nation on Earth."
"CHRISTIAN & ROBBINS: A choice for the condemned," The Washington Times, May 10, 2010

Economist Gene Steuerle at the Urban Institute points out that there may soon be no "fiscal slack," and therefore no "fiscal democracy," left in America: All tax revenues will have been pre-committed and all spending predetermined by the current Congress and president. It is already the case that mandated expenditures plus interest on debt are consuming all tax revenues and will soon greatly exceed them.
"Healthcare is a headache for GOP candidates in California," Los Angeles Times, May 5, 2010

John Holahan, director of the nonpartisan Health Policy Research Center at the Urban Institute, said that although some of the concepts make sense in theory, they would be difficult to implement and would represent a greater overhaul of the healthcare system than the reform legislation just signed into law. For example, shifting away from a system in which many Americans receive coverage from their employers to one in which everyone buys insurance on the free market could work if one were creating a system from scratch, Holahan said. But now, such a move would disrupt a system on which 170 million people rely.
"Former US CBO Chief Outlines America's Tough Fiscal Challenges," Market News International, May 4, 2010

Last week, there was a veritable torrent of words gushing from Washington about the U.S.'s serious long-term fiscal mess. Political leaders and budget experts offered strikingly grim forecasts at two high profile fora -- the first meeting of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform and a budget summit sponsored by the Peterson Foundation. But arguably no one outlined the nation's fiscal challenges with more stark simplicity and urgency than former Congressional Budget Office Director Robert Reischauer.
"Popular, Bad Policies," TheAtlantic.com, May 4, 2010

Howard Gleckman bashes the homebuyer tax credit: "The credit-induced artificial deadline has helped create a toxic brew of hungry real estate agents, ravenous mortgage brokers, desperate sellers, and frantic and inexperienced buyers. We learned what happened with Homebuyer Credit I. That tax subsidy led to massive fraud (including a large fraction of people claiming the credit who never bothered to buy a house). It also produced both a rush to buy before it (almost) expired last fall, and the inevitable sag in sales that followed."

April 2010

"What'll they tax next?" CNNMoney.com, April 30

"These states are expanding the services they're taxing, and a haircut is considered personal grooming and can be seen as a luxury item," said Kim Rueben, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. "And while you might not think a haircut is a luxury item, you could always do it cheaper or at home."
Minn. could join other states in cutting welfare programs for single adults," MPR, April 23, 2010

"It's not a population that has a lot of political support, " said Sheila Zedlewski, director of the Income and Benefits Policy Center at the Urban Institute. "People want to help children and don't want them to suffer if their families don't have jobs and income, but there's less sympathy for the single adults. They seem to get the brunt when cuts are being made."
"Balanced Budget Out of Reach, Many Experts Warn," Kaiser Health News, April 23, 2010

One committee of budget experts that examined the budget outlook in great detail and decided that the goal of a balanced budget is no longer realistic was organized by the National Research Council and the National Academy of Public Administration. Their report, "Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future," recommended a goal of stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio at 60 percent. Economist Rudolph G. Penner of the Urban Institute, co-chairman of the 24-member committee and one of three former CBO participating directors, said in an interview that "even stabilizing the ratio at that level will require some dramatic changes in policy" because of the huge mismatch between spending and tax revenues.

The drivers of federal spending are three programs, Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, "and all are growing faster than the economy and tax revenues," Penner told the Senate Budget Committee in February. It would be better to aim at a lower number, he added, but after poring over all the possible ways to achieve one, the committee decided a more stringent goal was politically unreachable. "A diverse set of ideologies was represented on the committee, but the group was very congenial and all debates were rational," Penner said. "Few committees are that pleasant." One reason, he said recently, was, "We didn't have to agree" on what to do about trimming spending or raising taxes.
"The truth about health care reform," CNN Money, April 22, 2010

Eugene Steuerle of the Urban Institute points to a basic economic tension in the plan: The government wants to help most families keep their health costs to around 10% of income, but Congress decided it couldn't afford to directly subsidize everyone enough to accomplish that.

The CBO estimates that about 9 million will lose their workplace plan, offset by another 7 million who gain it because the mandate motivates more people to get jobs with health benefits. So the actual change will most likely be modest. But those numbers are just estimates. "A Wal-Mart or two could shift it," says Steuerle. If employers move away from insurance too fast, the transition could be bumpy for a lot of people. And Obamacare's subsidies may cost more.
"VAT's benefits outweighed by politics, experts say," The Washington Post, April 21, 2010

"We're taking all the feasible, non-disastrous ways of dealing with our budget problems off the table," said Leonard Burman, former director of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, who now teaches at Syracuse University. "We can't cut Medicare. We can't enact a VAT. We can't raise any income taxes ever, except possibly on the 17 people who make over $1 billion a year.

"Behind closed doors, almost everyone serious in Washington understands there's a big problem," Burman said. "But in public, basically if you say anything intelligent, you're killed."
"US Women Still Earn Less Than Men, But Gap Is Narrowing," The Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2010

"Not only has the education gap between men and women narrowed, but labor market experience has narrowed because women have been working more and more, and more consistently," said Harry Holzer, an economist at Georgetown University and the Urban Institute.

However, the remaining gap is still cause for concern, he said.

"Big progress has been made, but a 20% pay gap remains significant," Holzer said.
"United Way board keeps audit results confidential," The Arizona Daily Star, April 18, 2010

Elizabeth K. Boris, director of the Center on Nonprofits and Philanthropy, part of the Washington, D.C.-based Urban Institute, said the number of staff departures suggests United Way's board "has done some housecleaning."
"Reduction Is Theme Of President's Next Act,"The New York Times, April 18, 2010

"There will be a significant battle within the administration," said Robert D. Reischauer, who led the Congressional Budget Office under President Bill Clinton. "We're going to have a real set of revelations in November, December and January."

Some deficit-reduction experts would applaud, but remain skeptical. "How you get from here to there" politically, Mr. Reischauer noted, "is unfathomable."
"After Health Care Passage, Obama Pushes to Get It Rolling," The New York Times, April. 17, 2010

"I'm modestly optimistic because the fiscal environment which we will be in, in three or four years, will be so desperate that the Congress and the administration will be looking for any mechanism or device that can hold down the growth of spending," said Robert Reischauer, an economist, health policy expert and former director of the Congressional Budget Office. "This act sets a foundation, I think, upon which effective cost controls can be built."
For Cash-Strapped States, Sin Is Sure Lucrative," The New York Times, April 16, 2010

"On some level, politicians want these taxes to affect behavior," said Kim Rueben, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute who studies state and local taxes. "But they're kind of in trouble if it works too well. If it's actually effective in changing behavior, governments lose that revenue source and have to figure out what else they can start taxing."
"Retirement: 11 questions on long-term care insurance," Money, April 16, 2010

"Long-term-care insurance is a much better buy for women," says Howard Gleckman of the Urban Institute, because they tend to outlive their husbands. People like Smith with a family history of Alzheimer's are at greater risk because that and other forms of dementia are more likely to lead to long stays in a home.
Cohen claims there are more tax cuts this year than almost any other in history," Politifact, April 15, 2010

Bob Williams of the Tax Policy Center agrees.

"Most Americans will see their taxes going down this year," Williams said.

But he warns that tax increases are on their way. The country is running huge, unsustainable deficits, he said. The spending was intended to help pull the country out of an economic recession, he said, but there will be consequences.

"Anyone who thinks we won't have to increase taxes is dreaming," Williams said.
"Why the Tea Party Is a Fraud," The Huffington Post, April 15, 2010

...taxes are at their lowest levels in 60 years, according to William Gale, co-director of the Tax Policy Center and director of the Retirement Security Project at the Brookings Institution.

"The relation between what is said in the tax debate and what is true about tax policy is often quite tenuous," Gale told Hotsheet. "The rise of the Tea Party at time when taxes are literally at their lowest in decades is really hard to understand."
"A tap on the pocketbook from your uncle: Budget arithmetic being what it is, is value-added tax in America's future?," Hearst News Service, April 15, 2010

"There's no way we're going to be able to pay our bills without" a VAT, said Len Burman, an economist at Syracuse University and former director of the center-left Tax Policy Center. "It could come about in a really humiliating way, when our foreign lenders say they're not going to lend us any more money unless we get our finances in order very quickly, in which case we'd have to put a VAT in place."
"Few lawmakers file their own tax returns, citing code's complexity," The Hill, April 15, 2010

While simplification could give more taxpayers the confidence to handle tax returns alone, it would also make the tax code a blunter object, said Roberton Williams, a former deputy assistant director for tax analysis at the Congressional Budget Office.

"The more we simplify, the less we can take into account between families and different costs," said Williams, now a senior fellow at the Brookings-Urban Tax Policy Center.
"Celebrating the Joys of April 15, 2010," The New York Times, April 15, 2010

And according to one much, much-quoted study by the Tax Policy Center, 47 percent of American households didn't have to pay one cent of income tax for 2009. (Marching bands, confetti.)

"That viral number," sighed Bob Williams, a senior fellow at the center. He is worried that the country is getting the impression that the bottom 47 percent is not paying anything for government services. But there are, of course, a lot of other taxes, particularly the big whoppers that are taken out of paychecks to pay for Social Security and Medicare, the programs everybody seems to like.

"This is looking only at income tax," Williams said. "If we toss in payroll tax, only 13 percent are exempt from both — almost all low-income elderly."
"Federal aid is forestalling only a fraction of foreclosures, report says," The Washington Post, April 15, 2010

Meanwhile, a report by the Urban Institute, a District-based nonprofit policy research group, to be released Thursday found that by the end of last year, nearly 3 percent of outstanding mortgages in the Washington region were in the foreclosure process and 9 percent were delinquent. There are signs that the region's housing market is starting to improve, the report says. But in the far suburbs and eastern areas, many homes are languishing on the market before selling, according to the report. About 27 percent of homes for sale in the Washington region stay on the market for at least three months. But in Charles County, about 42 percent of homes on the market take at least four months to sell.

"The region still faces a substantial challenge from the foreclosure crisis. There are still a lot of homeowners behind on their mortgage," said Peter Tatian, senior research association for the Urban Institute.
"Why Soaking The Rich Won't Solve The Deficit," NPR.org, April 15, 2010

The Tax Foundation is a conservative group, but they are not alone in worrying about Washington's heavy reliance on top earners. A trio of researchers at the more centrist Urban Institute recently presented a paper looking at ways that the federal government could reduce its deficit to 2 percent of GDP in the second half of this decade. Relying on top earners alone was not a realistic option.

"The rich just don't have enough money," says Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and one of the paper's authors. "You either have to tax more of the income distribution, or find other sources of revenue."

That's thanks to breaks and benefits such as the earned income tax credit. The number of credits and deductions -- for children, for students, for Prius owners -- is increasing. Williams estimates that 47 percent of single filers and 38 percent of joint filers will owe no taxes this year.
"White House: Stimulus showered billions on taxpayers," USA Today, April 14, 2010

Several experts said the tax cuts had the desired effect because they were received through paychecks. "It gets frittered away, which is really what you want done. You want the money spent," said Bob Williams of the non-partisan Tax Policy Center. When rebate checks went out in 2008, he said, about a third of the money was saved.

The report says 2.2 million to 2.8 million jobs have been saved or created through March. Some private forecasters, including Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com, put the figure lower: 1.5 million to 1.9 million. "The discrepancies are becoming more apparent," Zandi says. He projects the stimulus will ultimately save or create 2.5 million jobs; the White House says 3.5 million.
"Tax warning: 2011 rates will jump unless Congress acts," Norwalk Reflector, April 13, 2010

Such tax increases are possible because virtually all the tax cuts approved by Congress in 2001 and 2003 and signed into law by then-President George W. Bush expire at the end of this year, prompting Roberton Williams of the Tax Policy Center in Washington to say, "Basically, we go back to the world as it was in 2000."

Now for the good news: Williams and the vast majority of economists and political analysts predict that Congress will extend some, if not all, of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.
"With VAT Tax on the Table, Progressives Sound Alarm: Volcker's Remarks Heighten Concern About VAT and the Working Poor," The Washington Independent, April 13, 2010

The cost of Social Security, Medicare and other entitlement programs is predicted to skyrocket in the coming decades. "The largest programs in the budget support older people," said Eric Toder, a fellow at the Urban Institute and the Tax Policy Center.

Toder and others dismiss the notion that ratcheting up existing taxes will be enough to fill the revenue gap. "You're running against how high you can squeeze income tax. You don't want to push it too much further. If you tax investment income too high, we'll start seeing capital fleeing the U.S."
"Marron to Become Director of Tax Policy Center," The Wall Street Journal, April 13,

Donald Marron, who worked in the George W. Bush White House, will become the director of the Tax Policy Center, an eight-year-old joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution think tanks that produces widely used analysis of tax trends, data and policy options.

Marron succeeds Rosanne Altshuler, who will be returning to Rutgers University after nearly two years with the Tax Policy Center. The center's leadership includes two co-directors, William Gale of Brookings and Eric Toder of the Urban Institute. Marron takes up his duties in mid-May.

"Understanding and helping address the nation's revenue problems require imaginative scholarship, crisp communication skills, and an insider's knowledge about how good public policy can be made. Donald brings that and much more to the Tax Policy Center," said Robert Reischauer, president of the Urban Institute.
"Report: VAT could generate $260 billion in 2012," The Hill, April 7, 2010

The Tax Policy Center paper, written by Eric Toder and Joseph Rosenberg and released Wednesday, found that a broad-based 5 percent VAT, one that included exemptions only for education, vehicle, consumer interest and government-financed health spending, would result in a $258.6 billion in 2012.
"Tax burden mounting for high earners," Los Angeles Times, April 7, 2010

A key question in this closely contested midterm election year is whether Democrats will get cold feet over raising taxes during hard economic times. "They are in a push-pull situation," said Roberton Williams, a tax policy analyst at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. "They really want the money [from raising taxes]. But they don't want to quash the nascent recovery. How do you thread the needle?"
"Your toughest retirement puzzle: Long-term care," CNNMoney.com, April 7, 2010

"Long-term-care insurance is a much better buy for women," says Howard Gleckman of the Urban Institute, because they tend to outlive their husbands.
"Nearly half of US households escape fed income tax," Associated Press, April 7, 2010

In 2007, about 38 percent of households paid no federal income tax, a figure that jumped to 49 percent in 2008, according to estimates by the Tax Policy Center.
"More Medicaid Pay For Some Doctors, But Will It Last?" NPR, April 6, 2010

In states like Texas, for example, where doctors currently receive about 33 percent less to treat a Medicaid patient than a Medicare patient, a jump in payment by one-third would be a big deal, says Stephen Zuckerman, a health economist at the nonpartisan research institute, the Urban Institute. "It would be hard to visualize if that happens and providers begin to accept Medicaid patients that you're going to then see in 2015 a 33% cut in those fees -- but that is clearly what would happen if you read the legislation literally."
"Huge Gap in How Metro Areas Cope with Recession," Fiscal Times, April 6, 2010

In fact, of the nation's 100 largest urban areas, 29 have seen relatively minor changes in jobs and home prices, compared to another 29 that have seen significant drops in both housing and jobs. The remainder is almost evenly divided between those that have taken a hit in one area but not the other, according to a new analysis on "double trouble" areas from the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank.
"Cameras make Chicago most closely watched US city," Associated Press, April 6, 2010

Chicago police point to 4,000 arrests made since 2006 with the help of cameras. And, an unpublished study by the Washington-based Urban Institute found crime in one neighborhood — including drug sales, robberies and weapons offenses — decreased significantly after cameras were installed, said Nancy La Vigne, director of the institute's Justice Policy Center.<
"Even after reform, college graduates still face health insurance gap," MarketWatch.com, April 6, 2010

The measure comes at a time when one-third of Americans age 19 to 29 are uninsured. Extending dependent coverage may not be all that effective in reducing those ranks, since only about 11 percent of uninsured young adults live in families with parents who have group employer coverage, according to The Urban Institute.
"National debt seen heading for crisis level," San Francisco Chronicle, April 5, 2010

"In my judgment, a crisis could occur next week or 10 years from now," said Rudolph Penner, an Urban Institute economist who co-chaired a huge budget report sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration. "I don't really think we can go much beyond 10 years."
"Critics Debate If New Health Law Will Help Uninsured," NPR, April 5, 2010

Stephen Zuckerman: "There are fewer Medicaid enrollees that get access to mainstream physicians in large part because physicians can choose who they want to treat, and with Medicaid fees sort of at the bottom of the barrel, physicians are less likely to take patients with that coverage."
"5 Myths about your taxes," Washington Post, April 4, 2010

Roberton Williams and Rosanne Altshuler: "So why do taxes seem so complicated? Blame Congress. Legislators use the tax code not just to collect revenue but also to encourage and reward specific activities. The 1986 Tax Reform Act greatly simplified the income tax by getting rid of many special provisions and cutting the number of tax brackets. Since then, Congress has expanded the earned income and child-care credits, created the child, saver's, and education credits, established health savings and Roth retirement accounts, imposed different tax rates on dividends, created a class of long-term capital gains with a lower tax rate and doubled the number of tax brackets."
"Long-Term Unemployed Cloud the Jobs Picture," The Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2010

So what can be done? To some extent, says Robert Reischauer, president of the Urban Institute and former head of the Congressional Budget Office, "the answer is, we're doing it." Congress has extended unemployment benefits for longer periods to help workers cope (which, some analysts argue, may actually exacerbate the problem a bit by giving the jobless a reason to decline jobs not to their liking). A jobs bill Congress recently passed gives employers a tax credit for hiring workers unemployed for two months or more..
"True or false? Top 7 health care fears: Is the IRS going to hunt you down? Will your doc have a waiting line?," Kaiser Health News, April 2, 2010

Even experts who support the change concede that the impact of the cuts could be evident. Robert Berenson, a scholar at the Urban Institute and former Medicare official, said some Advantage plan members will notice skimpier benefits, "but the Republicans have really exaggerated that this will wipe out the Advantage plans."
"Despite Obama pitch on benefits of healthcare reform, small business is glum," The Christian Science Monitor, April 1, 2010

That's overstating the case, counters Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center in Washington. President Obama's 2011 budget calls for a repeal of the capital gains tax on small business and the vast majority of small-business owners won't be affected by the full array of taxes that Angrisani describes.
"Other factors matter a lot more ... like whether there is demand for more output," Mr. Williams writes in an e-mail.

March 2010

"Stimulus stumbles hold lessons for health care sell," The Politico, March 30, 2010

"The major land mines have little to do with the implementation and more to do with unfulfilled expectations," said Bob Reischauer, president of the Urban Institute and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office. He believes Americans will question continued increases in premiums and the number of uninsured going forward and say, "‘We enacted health reform a year ago. ...'"
"US Budget Experts Ponder Fiscal Consequences of New Health Law," Market News International, March 30, 2010

Robert Reischauer, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, said Monday on a conference call with reporters, that while there is a great deal of uncertainty about the fiscal effects of the health care law, it is wrong to assume all surprises will be negative.

He said many health experts believe the CBO's estimates are "too cautious or too conservative" about the degree of cost savings that may occur under the new law.

It is very possible, Reischauer said, the new health law could "reduce the deficit more" than the CBO estimates suggest.
"Open Enrollment: How do you get 30 million Americans to sign up for health insurance? With great difficulty," Newsweek, March 29, 2010

But many of the administrative tasks fall to individual states: creating exchanges; raising awareness; deciding on enrollment processes; building an enrollment infrastructure, both physical and technological; and making all of it easy for consumers to use. "It's an aggressive timeline," says Genevieve Kenney, a health-policy analyst at the Urban Institute, of the 2014 deadline. "But we're not going into it blind."

"Its nonsexy stuff," Kenney says of the enrollment processes. "But if coverage is your goal, and this legislation does reflect that belief, [then] all the evidence we have shows the importance of creating good systems to support enrollment."

While Medicare reached nearly all of its target enrollees in less than a year, 21 percent of SCHIP-eligible children remained unenrolled a decade after the program became law, according to a report from the Urban Institute. Moreover, from state to state, enrollment numbers varied widely, from a high of 93 percent in Massachusetts to a low of 59 percent in Texas in 1999.

The most recent reauthorization of SCHIP, signed by President Obama in February 2009, included a list of eight best practices in enrollment, rewarding states that use at least five of them. "States are innovating," says the Urban Institute's Kenney, " and they're coming to a growing consensus about how to do this best."
"Holmes: Shrinking the income gap," The Metrowest Daily News, March 28, 2010

Meanwhile, the tax increases in the new bill will fall on companies, like pharmaceutical and medical equipment firms, that will benefit from having more people covered. Individual tax hikes will hit only those earning more than $200,000 a year, or couples earning more than $250,000. The Tax Policy Center estimates the annual tax bill for a family earning $1 million a year will rise by $46,000 in 2013.
"If you're wealthy, get ready to pay: Tax policy shift will boost coverage," The Palm Beach Post, March 28, 2010

"This is a partial undoing of the Bush tax cuts," said Eric Toder, a senior analyst with the Tax Policy Center in Washington. "It's a pretty significant change in tax policy."

Still, four out of five Americans won't notice the new taxes, the Tax Policy Center predicted.

"This is very, very concentrated among high-income people," Toder said.

The taxes will raise about $20 billion a year, and 85 percent of that money will come from the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans, the Tax Policy Center estimates.

"I'm sure the people in Palm Beach are aware of it," Toder said
"Advisers count on reform bill to spotlight LTC planning: Government-run long-term-care program unlikely to provide adequate coverage, they say,"Investment News, March 28, 2010

The program represents "a huge step forward," said Howard Gleckman, a resident fellow at the Urban Institute.

"The problem is that we're doing this as a voluntary system, and there are issues with voluntary long-term-care insurance," he added. "Some [workers] will figure out that an amount of money is being deducted for this insurance, and they'll wonder if that makes sense or are they having money deducted for something they don't understand?"

Another problem with the program is that those who are most likely to need it will enroll, driving premiums up, while younger, and presumably healthy, workers will likely opt out, Mr. Gleckman said.
"Social Security cuts are matter of when, not if: Recession sliced time until benefits can't be fully paid," MarketWatch, March 28, 2010

"The problem is really the government as a whole is in a deficit position. That doesn't mean they won't meet that particular commitment, but the question of how we're going to meet all of our commitments fiscally is kind of up in the air," said Eric Toder, an institute fellow at the Urban Institute in Washington, D.C. "I don't think that's one they're likely to default on."
"ObamaCare Favors Americans Without Employer Coverage," Investor Business Daily, March 26,

"It's not clear to me that Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News) should want to offer a health plan" based on economic considerations, though it might for political reasons, said the Urban Institute's Eugene Steuerle.

Employers with over 50 employees who don't offer coverage will have to pay a fee of $2,000 per full-time worker. But even with such a fine, employers and employees may find they can "maximize their joint income" by opting for government subsidies, Steuerle said.

Firms with up to 50 employees wouldn't have any obligation to offer coverage, though a $42,000 fine would kick in with the 51st employee and another $2,000 for each additional one.
"Smaller firms will have lower labor costs," Steuerle said, providing a competitive advantage as well as an incentive for larger firms to outsource.
"Taxes and the Deficit Commission," New York Times blog, March 26, 2010

In recent years, the government has begun to deliver more and more social benefits through the tax code rather than through direct spending. The earned-income tax credit — an anti-poverty program — is a good example. Bob Williams of the Tax Policy Center recently had a good overview. He writes: "The high percentage of people paying no federal income tax is not the result of the levy's tax function. It is caused almost entirely by Congress's insistence on using the tax system to deliver social benefits."
"Mecklenburg County assets for sale?" Charlotte Observer, March 26, 2010

Selling assets solves a government's budget problem only if the budget bounces back quickly -- and that isn't likely now, given the hits to property values and property taxes around the country, said Kim Rueben, a public finance economist at the Urban Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank.
"Big question: Will we really pay less for health care?" USA Today, March 25, 2010

Robert Reischauer, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, says the law makes the government more responsible for the rate of spending growth. "It creates a platform on which cost containment measures can be built," he says. "There's a lot of promising experimentation contained in this bill."
"Boomers want to save children from spendthrift lives," Chicago Tribune, March 25, 2010

"It may be a harbinger of a kind of cultural shift," said Eugene Steuerle, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, a social and economic research institution. And for many families, he said, the change may be unavoidable. "It will be harder for households to borrow, so it will increase their savings rate," Steuerle said.
"The Five Keys to Health Reform's Success or Failure," Time, March 25, 2010

There's merit in moving slowly, however, says Linda Blumberg, a health policy expert at the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. "It could be very disruptive without a lot of gain if you're wrong. It makes sense to approach this stuff cautiously." The same may be true of comparative-effectiveness research, which is funded in the reform legislation and on which many economists and policy experts are pinning their hopes. The idea here is that the research — hard data about which treatments work more efficiently than others — will be adopted as standard protocol.
"Last Minute Deal On Medicare Highlights Dilemma On Curbing Costs," Kaiser Health News, March 23, 2010

Stephen Zuckerman, a senior fellow and health economist at the Urban Institute, said he was surprised to see the additional funding for low-cost hospitals since hospitals in the Midwest do not have "access issues" and the bill was trying to reduce Medicare spending. "The question is whether low-cost hospitals should be rewarded with higher payments or whether high cost hospitals should be penalized with lower payments," Zuckerman said.<
"Recession puts more stress on Social Security," The Tennessean (Nashville), March 23, 2010

"The problem is really the government as a whole is in a deficit position. That doesn't mean they won't meet that particular [Social Security] commitment but the question of how we're going to meet all of our commitments fiscally is kind of up in the air," said Eric Toder, an institute fellow at the Urban Institute in Washington. "I don't think that's one they're likely to default on."
"Unemployed, But Not Uninsured," newsweek.com, March 23, 2010

Say what you will about the politics surrounding health-care reform, but the new legislation undoubtedly will boost the quality of life for the unemployed and the underemployed. In the midst of the Great Recession, that's a lot of folks: roughly 15 million Americans. "Those are precisely the type of people helped by this bill," says Linda Blumberg, a health-policy expert at the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan economic and social think tank in Washington, D.C.
"First wave of health-care changes will target insurers with new rules," Washington Post, March 23, 2010

"In terms of the way providers are affected, it's probably not as big a change as it should have been," said John Holahan of the Urban Institute. "But you have the structure to deal with that in place, going forward. . . . If premiums continue to skyrocket, even with subsidies, insurance will be deemed unaffordable, and the whole thing will unravel."
"Health Care: Who's Not Covered?" NPR, March 22, 2010

Linda Blumberg: "The biggest part of that group is going to be unauthorized immigrants who are excluded from the reforms. They won't be eligible for financial assistance or for coverage through the Medicaid program. And they'll make up about a third of that uninsured group."
"Health care and deficits: Reality check from fiscal experts," CNNMoney.com, March 22, 2010

Howard Gleckman: "I never thought I'd see the day when a Democratic president would propose constraining the growth of Medicare, but would be unanimously opposed by congressional Republicans."
"New Taxes for Health Care Help Obama ‘Spread the Wealth Around,'" Bloomberg News, March 22, 2010

"It's very clear that taxes are levied on the wealthy and the benefits will spread across the entire income distribution, with a lot going to expanded Medicaid distribution and expanding health insurance," said Roberton Williams, an economist at the Tax Policy Center, a Washington research institute backed by the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. "One couldn't claim he didn't keep that promise" to "spread the wealth around."
"House delivers health care victory, but battles remain," USA Today, March 21, 2010

"It's not the desirable way to enact major social policy, but it might be the only way," said Robert Reischauer, president of the nonpartisan Urban Institute and a former Congressional Budget Office director.
"Congressional Budget Office's sunny forecast carries big uncertainties," The Washington Post, March 19, 2010

"I think the CBO is quite right not putting an estimate on these things," said Rudolph Penner, a fellow at the Urban Institute and former CBO director. "If you look at things like the spread of medical information, it seems to me you can't even be certain that the research won't tell you that people need more treatments than they get now. If they turn out to offer a lot more savings than I expect, that will be gravy."
"Will America's Charities Survive Washington's Ideas?" The Atlantic, March 18, 2010

Gene Steuerle from the Tax Policy Center praises a new rule that allows Americans to deduct donations to Haiti on their 2009 or 2010 tax returns. I agree that it's a perfectly good idea to encourage people to donate to charity. I also agree that allowing taxpayers to itemize charitable donations and deduct them from their taxable income is a perfectly good way to inject charity into our tax system.
"States Weigh Taxes To Help Fund Medicaid—And Raise Federal Contributions," Kaiser Health News, March 17, 2010

Congress doesn't appear eager to block the taxes, said Stephen Zuckerman, a health economist at the Urban Institute in Washington. "Who's at fault here?" he asked. "The federal government knows it's going on and allows it."
"Physician groups, hospitals seen driving health care costs in California: While health plans held the power in the 1990s, that is shifting, according to a survey of health industry employees," American Medical News, March 17, 2010

"What we are seeing here is the haves and the have-nots," said Robert Berenson, article co-author and a fellow at the Urban Institute.

More stringent enforcement of existing antitrust laws would not have an effect, because antitrust law focuses on local market concentration, and this power extends across regions, Dr. Berenson said. "They're not doing anything illegal."
"The more you give, the more you get back: Charity benefits are greater than you might think," The Los Angeles Times, March 15, 2010

"These are the organizations that are working to make sure that money is going to people in need and that it is benefiting their communities," said Elizabeth Boris, director of the Urban Institute's Center on Nonprofits and Philanthropy.
"Congress is long overdue for serious effort at tax reform," The Washington Post, March 14, 2010

Reforming the system has been made more difficult by another trend: We've begun running more of our social policy through the tax code. Rather than creating programs, we create tax credits. "It's easier politically," says Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, "because it's easier for a congressman to say that I cut your taxes rather than that I started a new program to spend your money."
"How Paul Ryan Would Transform the US Tax System," theatlantic.com, March 12, 2010

Let's start with the big numbers. The non-partisan Tax Policy Center found that Ryan's plan came up hundreds of billions of dollars short of his revenue goals. If enacted tomorrow, his plan would lose the US government an additional $550 billion of tax revenue.
"Dear Metro chief: It's not going to be fun," washingtonpost.com, March 12, 2010

Olivia Golden: "I've learned from my own experience and watching others that in even the harshest environment, the right leader with the right skills, team, and political support can make a difference. Performance can go from terrible starting points to promising results."
"The Washington Post's Very Bad Economic Advice for Obama," The Atlantic, March 11, 2010

Broder's typically a laboriously evenhanded guy. This column could have used another hand. I like long-term deficit reduction plans as much as the next person (unless the next person is Pete Peterson) but holding up the states as fiscal models for the federal government is insane. One reason the US has to run a huge deficit is precisely to keep states from firing all their public employees and jacking up taxes. As former CBO Director Bob Reischauer told me, rescuing the states from their own contraction is "the most important component" of our deficit spending. We're running a deficit partly to compensate for the "real world discipline" of the states.
"Extra Stimulus Aid Fuels Sales, But Fiscal Flood Cresting Early," Investor's Business Daily, March 11, 2010

Robertson Williams, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, said that those without tax liability are likely to be among the first filers. Two factors might diminish the punch from larger checks from the IRS this year, he said. People may have anticipated the refund and spent it already, or these modest-income households might also have outstanding debts to pay down.
"Trust In Me," Jackson Free Press (Miss.), March 10, 2010

Research by the Urban Institute—including, most recently a 2009 study—has consistently found that the primary cause of homelessness—aside from aggravating factors like mental illness, addiction and health costs—is a lack of affordable housing. The ongoing economic recession has exacerbated that need in Jackson, which has never had a glut of quality affordable housing.
"Job market creates reluctant retirees," U.S. News and World Report, March 10, 2010

"The risk of taking up Social Security when you are young is you could lock yourself into a lifetime of relatively low retirement benefits," says Richard Johnson, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. "That's something that could come back to haunt a retiree in their 70s and 80s when their out-of-pocket health care costs start going up and they might wish they had an extra $100 or $200 in benefits."
"Paul Ryan's budget proposal does not balance the budget," washingtonpost.com, March 10, 2010

Howard Gleckman: "In his provocative Roadmap for America's Future, Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI) figures that his broad tax code overhaul would eventually generate about 19 percent of Gross Domestic Product in revenues. But the Ryan plan would produce hundreds of billions of dollars-a-year less than that—about 16.8 percent of GDP—a decade from now, according to new Tax Policy Center estimates. Moreover, the plan would give a huge tax cut to the wealthy, while cutting taxes by little or nothing (and in some cases even raising taxes) for low- and middle-income people."
"Steps to take when starting your own charity," USA Today, March 8, 2010

"Make sure someone's not doing (your idea) next door," says Tom Pollak, program director of the Urban Institute's National Center for Charitable Statistics. If they are, he says, it may be more effective to help them by volunteering than to set up a rival charity.
"Why a VAT Tax Is Where It's At," BusinessWeek, March 5, 2010

Eventually, over the next half-century or so, if the nation's total tax burden stays around its current 18% of gross domestic product, Uncle Sam will end up borrowing to pay interest on the interest, according to Rudolph G. Penner, economist at the nonpartisan Urban Institute. "At that point, total spending, the deficit, and the national debt begin to go straight up," he writes.
"Arizona Flirts With Austerity," Newsweek, March 5, 2010

None of these proposals is a slam-dunk. But their ultimate impact may be less fiscal than political, says Kim Rueben, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, which tracks state policy.
"Boomer Out-of-Pocket Health Care Costs to Double by 2040," CBS Moneywatch.com, March 4, 2010

Having just finished a spin through the Urban Institute's new study, Will Health Care Costs Bankrupt Aging Boomers? my first thought was to go get on the elliptical, pronto. I figure the better shape I'm in, the better shot I have at keeping health care outlays from eating up gobs of my income in retirement.
"Courage to break promises that we can't afford to keep," The Hill, March 3, 2010

John Palmer and Rudolph Penner: "It's time for our political leadership — on both sides of the aisle — to give Americans credit for understanding that there are no painless solutions. And it's time for the American people to give credit to political leaders who are willing to step up to the challenge."
"Getting African Americans back to work," Marketplace, March 2, 2010

Margaret Simms: "In January, the [unemployment] rate for African Americans was nearly 17 percent compared with roughly 9 percent for white workers. News flash: This two-to-one ratio was the norm. As I see it, the reason African Americans are out in the cold when it comes to jobs boils down to three words: location, location, location."
"Hoyer: Raising taxes a realistic option," The Hill, March 1, 2010

"Barring major changes, we're going to see deficits running at $1 trillion or higher and going on forever," said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center and former tax analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. "And the question is, ‘How do you get rid of trillion-dollar deficits?'"
"Tax Expenditures: What They Are, and Why They Need Reform,"theatlantic.com, March 1, 2010

Taxes can be used to discourage behavior, so government uses these tax breaks -- which total $900 billion ever year according to the Tax Policy Center -- to encourage certain activities. The number one tax break is on employer provided health insurance, because we want employers to provide health insurance. Another top-ten tax expenditure is the tax deductible status of charitable donations, because charitable giving is, we agree, a nice thing to do.
"Paul Ryan and the true cost of health-care reform," washingtonpost.com, March 1, 2010

Robert Reischauer is the head of the Urban Institute. He's also one of the CBO's most revered former directors, in no small part because his relentlessly honest cost estimates helped doom Bill Clinton's bill in 1994. I reached him earlier today and asked whether he thought this bill made fiscal sense. "Were I in Congress and asked to vote on this," he replied, "I'd vote in favor." The bill isn't perfect, he continued, "but it at least has the prospect for creating a platform over which more significant and far-reaching cost containment can be enacted."

February 2010

"Not much impact from repeat buyer credit," The Associated Press, February 28, 2010

"You've got a really big problem that requires big guns, and the tax credit is just not big enough," said Roberton Williams, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center in Washington.
>Deaths Rising for Lack of Insurance, Study Finds," The New York Times, February 26, 2010

"The bottom line is that if you don't get a disease picked up early and you don't get necessary treatment, you're more likely to die," said Stan Dorn, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and the author of the organization's earlier study."
Jobs Bill May Not Pack a Big Enough Punch," WebCPA.com, February 26, 2010

There are some reasons to think the credit may have some beneficial effect on employment, according to Eric Toder, Institute Fellow at the Urban Institute and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. "Because it is only available for hires in 2010, it could encourage some firms to hire workers late in 2010 who they otherwise would have hired in 2011," he said. "This acceleration of jobs would not directly increase employment in 2011 and beyond, but could indirectly raise jobs in 2011 if the new hires help accelerate the economic recovery by spending some of their increased wages."
"Senate's jobs bill has a few problems," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, February 26, 2010

The incentives apply to any newly hired worker who was unemployed for more than 60 days. That's an arbitrary and unnecessary restriction, says Howard Gleckman, senior research associate at the Tax Policy Center in Washington.

"Why do we want to help someone who's been unemployed for two months more than someone who's been unemployed for one month?" Gleckman asks. "It will require a lot of paperwork and a lot of documentation, and that's exactly what employers hate."<
"Dems may take shortcut in passing health overhaul," The Associated Press, February 26, 2010

"If Democrats rely on reconciliation, there will be those who ask, 'What part of 'no' don't you understand?'" said Robert Reischauer, former chief of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
"Hospital Clout Spurs Higher California Health Costs," Bloomberg, February 25, 2010

"Health insurers have been squarely in the crosshairs, blamed for the high cost of private insurance while the role of growing hospital and physician market power has escaped scrutiny," Robert Berenson, a study co-author and researcher at the Washington-based Center for Studying Health System Change and the Urban Institute, said in a statement. "Provider power is the elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about."

President Barack Obama met today with Democratic and Republican members of Congress on a health-care proposal that focuses on restricting the insurance industry's clout. Berenson, who worked on Medicare policy for President Bill Clinton, said putting a leash on insurers may not be enough.
"5 new tax breaks you don't want to miss," CNNMoney.com, February 25, 2010

The Tax Policy Center estimates that 75% of all taxpayers filing their returns this year will benefit from the credit and see a savings of $375 on average, said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center.
"Congress pushes back on tax deduction plan from the president," The Hill, February 24, 2010

Charities could see a drop of about 3 percent in the donations they received and a decrease of about 10 percent in donations from upper-income Americans, according to Bob Williams, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.

"The philanthropic sector was very worried because they themselves were hurting in the current environment, with the reduced value of all the investments," Williams said.

But there's also a case to limit the deduction rates, as they amount to a subsidy for the rich, Williams said.

Obama's plan "would make it a more level playing field," he said.
"Wages Likely To Stay Sluggish For Years to Come," NPR, February 24, 2010

"At least within this past decade, employers didn't feel any pressure to have to hire more workers and entice them with higher wages," says Harry Holzer, a former chief economist with the Labor Department now affiliated with the Urban Institute and Georgetown University.

"Even before the recession started, you had almost a complete [business] cycle where you had very high productivity growth and virtually none of it showed up in the wages of the median worker, adjusted for inflation."
"Obama's Plan Favors Senate Over House: A Comprehensive Comparison Of The Three Plans Shows Areas Of Commonality," National Journal Online, February 23, 2010

There would be fewer new enrollees with the preferable federal matching rate in states that already cover more people under the program. "Because of the current match rate structure, a larger share of federal dollars would go to the South and West so the share of state spending is lower than the share of new enrollees in these regions if eligibility is expanded to 100 percent or 150 percent [federal poverty level] for adults. For example, in an expansion to 150 percent FPL, the South is expected to account for 49 percent of the new enrollees but 44 percent of the new state spending," the Urban Institute's John Holahan wrote in a December report for the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured.
"Obama's new healthcare plan unlikely to get GOP backing: Democrats were encouraged but Republicans mainly negative after President Barack Obama introduced a new healthcare plan. A bipartisan summit is set for Thursday," McClatchy Newspapers, February 23, 2010

"It sends a clear signal what he's comfortable with,'' said Stephen Zuckerman, a senior fellow at Washington's Urban Institute, a research group.
"Obama's health care bill revision seeks Dem unity," USA Today, February 23, 2010

"This would be a move away from the basic way we've financed Medicare to say, 'Let's make it more inclusive,'" said Roberton Williams with the non-partisan Tax Policy Center.
"Obama offers new health-care reform proposal," The Washington Post, February 23, 2010

"It doesn't strike you as a scaled- down thing that's not supposed to have enemies," said John Holahan of the Urban Institute, who is a proponent of comprehensive legislation. "They just went all out."
"Obama Endorses Medicare Tax, More Drugmaker Fees," Indianapolis Business Journal/Bloomberg News, February 22, 2010

The proposed tax would also apply to capital gains, an administration official confirmed. That would push the rate to 22.9 percent in 2011, up from 15 percent now and 20 percent scheduled to take effect next year. Obama also embraced the Senate proposal for an increase in the Medicare payroll tax on the highest earners.

"This is a potential pot sitting out there, a source of tax revenue that they haven't tapped into," said Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center in Washington. "It changes the nature of financing for Medicare."
"What's New in Obama Plan? Not So Much," AOL News, February 22, 2010

"It isn't a wimpy proposal," said John Holahan, health policy director at the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. "It seems to have put together a package that would be reasonably close to what the House wanted as fixes to the Senate bill."
"Small businesses slow to hire," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, February 22, 2010

Those tax credits did result in a small drop in the unemployment rate. Then, as now, many businesses were unaware of the incentives, said Eric Toder, an economist with the Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution.

Whether jobs went up because of (the incentives) or because of the general policy, we can't be sure," said Toder.

Critics contend the mandated expiration of the credits, after two years, caused joblessness to rise again during the early 1980s. But, again, Toder points to extenuating circumstances, such as the rise in oil prices in 1979.
"Does Washington Need Fixing?" The New York Times, February 19, 2010

"I've never been as pessimistic as I am right now," said Robert Reischauer, former director of the Congressional Budget Office. "I don't see how we get out of this."
"Do We Really Want the Status Quo on Health Care?" New York Times, February 18, 2010

Also last month, the Urban Institute applied its computer model of health insurance costs to a scenario in which there is no reform, and this is what it found: "Over the next decade in every state, the percent of the population that is uninsured will increase, employer-sponsored coverage will continue to erode, spending on public programs will balloon, and individual and family out-of-pocket costs could increase by more than 35 percent," it said. It added that the number of uninsured Americans could reach as many as 65 million in another decade.
"Unable to get jobs, freed inmates return to jail," MSNBC.com, February 17, 2010

To avoid the likelihood of returning to jail within the first year, ex-convicts need to land jobs within two months of their release and they need to make more than minimum wage, said Nancy La Vigne, director of the Justice Policy Center at The Urban Institute in Washington.
"Drowning in Debt: What the Nation's Budget Woes Mean for You," ABC News, February 17, 2010

"The American people today are not remotely prepared for the changes that are necessary," said former Congressional Budget Office director Rudolph Penner. He says Americans who have been accustomed to buying on credit and living beyond their means at home may soon face a painful reality as the government tightens its belt further. "They aren't hearing about the drastic changes needed, and they certainly didn't hear about it in the President's budget," Penner said.
"What you really need in retirement: friends," Money Magazine, February 17, 2010

One way to expand your connections is by joining groups dedicated to causes you believe in, or by volunteering. Retirees who volunteer are about 15% more likely to be very satisfied than those who don't, according to Urban Institute research.
"Budget Expert: U.S. Fiscal Crisis ‘Endangers our Prosperity and Freedom," Politics Daily, February 16, 2010

"Although Greece's debt now exceeds 120 percent of their GDP, which is problematic itself, their real problems arose when they didn't tell the truth about their fiscal situation," [Rudolph] Penner explained. "Wait a minute," he said, "that situation describes exactly what the federal government is doing with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
"Fiscal Sanity and Political Sanity Are Needed on Budget," Roll Call, February 16, 2010

The big problem with [Pres. Obama's proposed budget freeze] is underscored by a chart compiled by Eugene Steuerle, an Urban Institute economist noted for his relentlessly fair-minded analysis. Steuerle looks at the proportion of government revenues allocated automatically to mandatory programs and the amount left for everything else. In 1962, 65 percent of government revenues were not automatically set aside for mandatory programs -- in other words, they were available to be applied by Congress and the president for whatever needs had to be met. In 2009, the number was down to zero -- and in the next decade, it will be negative. In other words, every dollar and more of the choices made annually by government to solve problems and meet needs will be financed through deficit spending.
"Individual mandate: A sticking point in the healthcare debate," Chicago Tribune, February 15, 2010

Linda Blumberg: "For comprehensive healthcare reform to work, we have to have some way to broadly spread the cost of those with high medical needs, and this can either be done through the tax system or an individual mandate. The mandate is one useful and effective strategy."
"Obama's disco-era jobs bill," CNNMoney.com, February 15, 2010

"It shouldn't matter whether the person you're hiring was unemployed for 60 days or 20 days. You just want companies to hire the best people they can," says Howard Gleckman, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute and editor of TaxVox, the center's tax and budget policy blog. "The more constraints you put on companies the less likely they're going to do it."
"Why Harry Reid is stripping down jobs bill," The Christian Science Monitor, February 12, 2010

Generally, companies only hire more workers if they think demand for their products is going to increase, notes Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center of the Urban Institute.

A tax credit now might drive some hiring on the margins, says Williams. It might push companies that were thinking of taking on new worker to move more quickly than they might have otherwise.

"But the real winners will be firms who were going to hire anyway," he says.
"Social Security surplus hit by joblessness, early retirement," McClatchy Newspapers, February 11, 2010

"Much of [the surge in Social Security beneficiaries] is coming from the weak economy," said Richard Johnson, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute. "The fact that many people can't find work is forcing them to retire and collect benefits early."

Also fueling the increase was the leading edge of the baby boom generation, more than 3.4 million boomers who turned 62 in 2009, Johnson said. That was 9 percent more than in 2008 — the first year that any baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, were eligible for Social Security retirement benefits.
>"Jailhouse blues; California must reduce its prisons' overcrowding and cost. But how?" The Economist, February 11, 2010

But [private prisons are] not a long-term solution, says John Roman of the Urban Institute, a think-tank in Washington, DC. For big savings, a state would have to cut services to inmates, from drug treatment to counselling, whether the prison is public or private. Such cuts, however, leave inmates less prepared to re-enter society and more likely to end up behind bars again.
"Facing Foreclosure? Get Counseling; An inexpensive part of the federal effort to dig America out of the subprime crisis appears to have promise," Miller-McCune, February 9, 2010

The audience for the National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling program services is, as might be expected, drawn from the desperate. The Urban Institute found that 75 percent [of the counseled homeowners] were already delinquent on their mortgages when they sought counseling, and 22 percent had already received a foreclosure notice.

While the NFMC program "somewhat reduced" the likelihood that counseled homeowners would end up in foreclosure, it was "even more effective at helping homeowners cure an existing foreclosure," according to the Urban Institute study.
"Will Baby Boomers Bankrupt Social Security?" CNBC.com, February 8, 2010

"The debt level of the United States is unsustainable, something has to give," said Rudolph Penner, head of the CBO from 1983 to 1987 and co-chairman of the ["Choosing the Nation's Fiscal Future"] report.

"Given that no one in power is serious about restraining the deficit, we are rapidly heading toward a crisis," Penner said. "If we should ever become rational, I think that the only solution involves a combination of tax increases and spending restraint."
"Yes, Let's Talk About Those Republican Ideas," Kaiser Health News and The New Republic, February 8, 2010

Republicans boast that the Roadmap is serious plan to get the federal budget under control, which turns out to be a fairly large exaggeration. As Howard Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center has observed, the Roadmap doesn't account for trillions of dollars in lost revenue from its tax cuts. Yes, that's trillions with a "t" at the front and "s" at the back.
"Bills Stalled, Hospitals Fear Rising Unpaid Care," The New York Times, February 8, 2010

Nationwide, the cost of unpaid care for hospitals, which includes charity care as well as money that could not be collected from patients, was around $36 billion in 2008. It is expected to spiral higher. The number of people without insurance in this country could increase to as high as 58 million by 2014, from about 49 million now, according to an estimate by the Urban Institute.
"Study: Immigration Crackdowns Hurt Children," New America Media, February 7, 2010

[Ajay] Chaudry said the Department of Homeland Security needs to work with federal and state departments in education services to address child needs. Another recommendation found in the report is to improve and increase alternatives to detention, such as the use of electronic monitoring devices and supervised release.

"About 32,000 individuals are in detention on any given day," Chaudry said, "while 16,000 individuals are released with alternatives to detention. We think that ratio can be flipped."

The report also recommends replacing worksite raids with other employer enforcement strategies.<
"Aliens study: Raids, arrests affect youths," The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette (Little Rock), February 4, 2010

The [Urban Institute] issued a dozen policy recommendations that 'address the hardships of children within the context of ongoing enforcement of immigration laws.' They included changes in federal immigration law, in enforcement strategies, and in how community and public agencies respond to the needs of children affected by immigration enforcement.

Among the institute's recommendations: Congress should alter immigration laws to consider the circumstances and interests of children, especially children who are U.S. citizens, during deportation proceedings.
"What Happens If Nothing Happens to Health Care?" The Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2010

"Failure to enact health reform will result in increasing numbers of people without health insurance because fewer employers will offer it and many employees will not be able to pay the cost of plans that are available," predicts Stephen Zuckerman, a health economist at Washington's Urban Institute think tank.

"For people not offered employer coverage, many will not be able to get coverage due to pre-existing conditions that insurers won't cover or because premiums simply won't be affordable. Even people with coverage will find costs becoming a greater financial burden," he said.
"The Numbers Man Whom Washington Trusts — and Loathes," Time, February 3, 2010

In a job that is subject to enormous political pressure, seen and unseen, from both parties, Elmendorf is nobody's pushover. In July, he rocked Capitol Hill when he testified that instead of bringing the government's health care costs down, earlier versions of legislation under consideration in both the House and the Senate would drive them up faster. "I can think of 30 ways to say that, that would have been honest but would have gotten less in the way of headlines," says Urban Institute president Robert Reischauer, one of Elmendorf's predecessors as the head of the CBO. "I fired off a congratulatory e-mail."
"Republican caucus did not back Democrats' tax cuts," St. Petersburg Times, February 3, 2010

"In a way this reminds me of Clinton's 'It depends on what your meaning of is is' comments," said Rosanne Altshuler, director of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. "It depends on what you mean by tax cuts."

"These are all provisions that cut your taxes," she said, "but most of them are temporary," designed to stimulate a floundering economy.

Each of the tax provisions in the stimulus could have been broken into separate bills, said Bob Williams, also of the Tax Policy Center, and on their own could have rightly been billed as separate tax cuts.

"I think it's fair to say that various tax provisions in the stimulus could be considered tax cuts. I don't think that's being deceptive," he said.
"Obama to use backdoor taxes to hit middle class? Oops, not true," Christian Science Monitor, February 2, 2010

It means more money out of taxpayer pocketbooks. But these tax breaks were never intended to be permanent the way the Bush tax cuts were intended, says Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank sponsored by the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution. "It becomes a philosophical question," he writes in an e-mail.
"States Cutting Back Special Programs For Uninsured," Kaiser Health News, February 2, 2010

"There will be no reason for states to pay for this themselves," says John Holahan of the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington.
"South Miami cardiologists launch campaign to retain pay," Miami Herald, February 2, 2010

Some healthcare experts like the cuts. "I'm not at all sympathetic with the cardiologists," said Robert Berenson, a doctor once in charge of Medicare payment policy and now a fellow with the Urban Institute. "Studies show they make well over $400,000 a year" -- more than twice what a family practice physician earns.
"Once-Robust Charity Sector Hit With Mergers, Closings," The Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2010

"It's a triple whammy," says Elizabeth Boris, director of the Urban Institute's Center on Nonprofits and Philanthropy. "Donations are down. Government funding is down. Need is up."
"A new cure for healthcare reform," Miami Herald, February 1, 2010

But there's a problem with that, said Robert Berenson, a physician who is a fellow with the Urban Institute. Trying to insure a few more people without providing something close to universal coverage is "a slippery slope."

By banning preexisting clauses, "only sick people would sign up for insurance," Berenson said. Well persons would be less likely to waste their money on coverage. That would mean that either insurance rates would be enormously high or insurers would go bankrupt.

"So to do away with preexisting, you have to have some kind of mandate that people must have insurance," so that well persons could contribute to the pool of funds insurers could draw on, Berenson said. "And that means you're back to full reform."
"Breaking Down Obama's Budget," U.S. & World Report, February 1, 2010

Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, says that this plan predates the backlash that hedge funds have experienced in the wake of the Bernard Madoff saga.

"I think it was a concern just because those folks were making lots and lots of money and being taxed at a very, very low rate relative to other high-income individuals," he says. "So it was raised mostly as an issue of high-income people facing low tax rates, not as an issue of [backlash] against the financial excesses that we saw."

January 2010

"Obama pivots to job creation in speech," San Francisco Chronicle, January 28, 2010

The Congressional Budget Office estimated the deficit for the next fiscal year at $1.3 trillion. Urban Institute budget analyst Gene Steuerle noted that last year, for the first time in U.S. history, every dollar of revenue was already committed before Congress convened.
"A new cure for healthcare reform," Miami Herald, January 28, 2010

Trying to insure a few more people without providing something close to universal coverage is "a slippery slope."' By banning preexisting clauses, "only sick people would sign up for insurance," [Robert] Berenson said.
"Obama Aid Plans for ‘Strained' Middle Class Limited in Reach," Bloomberg, January 28, 2010

Only 3.9 million families would see new tax savings, limiting the budget impact to $1.2 billion per year, [Elaine] Maag said. The child-care tax credit is only available to families with children under 13 and where there isn't a stay-at-home parent. "It's a little bit of smoke and mirrors," Maag said. "This is a way for President Obama to say he's helping the middle class without costing much in the budget."
"The U.S. is broke. Here's why," USA Today, January 27, 2010

Gene Steuerle: "Thanks to decades of promises for ever-higher benefits and low taxes for the indefinite future, there's now less give in future budgets than at any point in American history. At least profligate Congresses in the past confined their excesses and temporarily large deficits to the current year. Until recently, they didn't box in the future."
"CBO: Federal deficit projected at $1.35T," Associated Press, January 26, 2010

Obama's budget also includes deficit-boosting ideas such as an increase in the child care tax credit for families making less than $85,000 a year. Administration officials won't say what it would cost, but the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank, says credit would cost up to $40 billion over the next 10 years.
"Ranks of jobless older men swelling," McClatchy/Tribune news, January 25, 2010

The institute also pointed out a bleak situation for workers who are physically unable to work but are not yet eligible for retirement benefits. "Only 47 percent of Americans aged 51 to 64 with disabilities ever receive disability benefits from the federal government," the institute reported. "If someone within that age range becomes disabled, their risk of falling into poverty doubles."
"Unexpected lessons from Massachusetts," Marketwatch.com, January 22, 2010

If health reform dies this year, within a decade there will be demand at least for Medicare as an option, with income subsidies similar to what's in the current bills -- and the potential for Medicare for all isn't out of the question either, [John Holahan] said. "I almost think you'd have to because of the budget implications and the health implications and financial pressure on health-care institutions," Holahan said. "If the uninsured rate goes to 60, 70 million over next decade, that's an awful lot of people who can't afford to pay."
"Get Ready for a New Tax," New York Times, Economix blog, January 22, 2010

Income taxes alone won't be enough to fill the nation's budget hole, according to a new study. Rosanne Altshuler, Katherine Lim and Roberton Williams, all of the Tax Policy Center, recently ran some calculations on how Congress could cut the deficit to a sustainable 2 percent of gross domestic product… The results were "discouraging," showing that the government would have to impose almost ludicrously high rates in order to make a dent in the deficit.
"Secondary Sources: Deficit Reduction and Taxes, Jobs, Geithner," The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics blog, January 22, 2010

Bob Williams writes on the Tax Policy Center's TaxVox blog that higher income taxes alone won't solve the budget problem. "Under the higher tax baseline of current law, we'd have to raise all individual rates by 15 percent to meet our 2 percent deficit goal. But under the lower-revenue scenario of current policy, rates would have to jump nearly 50 percent. In other words, the 10 percent bracket would become nearly 15 percent and the 35 percent top rate would go to 52 percent.
"Brown's victory in Mass. senate race hardly a repudiation of health reform," Washington Post, January 21, 2010

John Holahan of the Urban Institute said Congress could have done more to even out the state-by-state impact [of health reform]. "It's really striking," he said. "The real beneficiaries of this are the states in the South and the West who are opposing health-care reform."
"America's new touchy-feely 'war on drugs," Reuters, January 21, 2009

A number of studies have shown that drug courts reduce crime in their area by up to 40 percent and cut rearrests and convictions by up to 26 percent. According to an April 2008 Urban Institute study, for every $1 spent on drug courts, $2.21 is saved through reduced police, hospital and other costs.
"Foreclosure experts meet, debate strategies," St. Louis Post-Dispatch, January 15, 2010

A recent study by the Urban Institute… found that troubled borrowers who sought help from free, government-certified counselors were 60 percent more likely to avoid foreclosure than those who did not. And they were able to cut monthly payments by an average of $454 million.
"State stands to gain from health reform; Large Medicaid population, high poverty rate mean more federal funds," The New Mexican (Santa Fe, N.M.), January 16, 2010

Automatic enrollment that would allow individuals to check a box on IRS tax forms if they want their income information to be considered for eligibility into Medicaid. If they qualify on income, families can be enrolled or sent enrollment forms. "If the government already has the information, why not use it to determine eligibility," Stan Dorn said.
"Change in law starving jobless fund," The Providence Journal, January 19, 2010

"Tax revenue [for state unemployment trust funds] declined relative to the economy over the past decade," Wayne Vroman said. As a result, he said, "the financing is inadequate, especially for a severe recession like the one we're going through now."
"Why US high school reform efforts aren't working" The Christian Science Monitor, January 15, 2010

A new book from the Urban Institute, Saving America's High Schools, examines the results of six major reform efforts and finds little widespread improvement – despite innovative changes and large infusions of money and manpower. And a survey released last month by Deloitte found that while almost half of low-income high school students and their parents say that the primary mission of high school is to prepare them for college, only 9 percent of educators say that's their primary task.
"Face of joblessness is looking older," Kansas City Star, January 15, 2010

"Only 47 percent of Americans aged 51 to 64 with disabilities ever receive disability benefits from the federal government," the [Urban] institute reported. "If someone within that age range becomes disabled, their risk of falling into poverty doubles."
"Cadillac tax on hatchback care: Senate health bill's surcharge on high-cost plans could eventually end up hitting middle class hard," The Boston Globe, January 15, 2010

"There's no question that it's going to be easier to get to those thresholds in some of the higher-cost states," said Stephen Zuckerman, a health economist at the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank. If employers cannot negotiate better rates from insurers, he said, "Over time, more and more plans will be exposed to this Cadillac tax."
"Tax expansion could pay for healthcare overhaul," Los Angeles Times, January 14, 2010

Expanding the Medicare tax could take up the slack. "It's a very progressive way to raise money," said Roberton Williams, an analyst at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. "It would protect union workers. It would definitely target people who are better-off, but it could hit some of the elderly who are relying on savings to get by."
"Experts Say Curb US Debt or Suffer A Dollar Crisis," Reuters, January 13, 2010

"It has got to be done. It will be done some day. It may be done with enormous pain. Or it may be done more rationally," said Rudolph Penner, a former head of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget office who co-chaired the 24-strong Committee on the Fiscal Future of the United States.
"Health reform skepticism, Part 2, "Washingtonpost.com, January 6, 2010

There are policy wonks -- and then there's Eugene Steuerle of Washington's Urban Institute. A former Treasury Department official, Steuerle not only has a preternatural understanding of federal tax, budget and welfare policy, but he can communicate his knowledge in terms the non-wonks among us easily understand. He's also non-ideological. So when Eugene Steuerle starts wondering about the feasibility of the current health care legislation, it's worth listening to what he has to say.
"The Five Big Questions About Retirement," Time, January 5, 2010

Between 1995 and 2005 -- before the onset of any financial strain owing to the Great Recession -- men in the labor force aged 62 to 64 jumped to 53% from 45%, the Urban Institute reports. Many who plan to work in retirement say it's because they'll need money. Indeed, working longer is the closest thing you'll find to a silver bullet if you have not saved enough. Staying on the job five years longer enables the average retiree to increase annual spending by 56%, according to the Urban Institute.

[NOTE: More recent data are available at http://www.urban.org/issues/olderamericanschallenges.cfm.]
"Reducing U.S. debt: Ideas from the Hall of Lame," CNNMoney.com, January 4, 2010

"The president thinks we will somehow reduce the deficit and fix the tax code without raising taxes by a dime for those poor souls making a quarter million dollars-a-year or less. Unfortunately, that's 95 percent of us. Can't wait to see how he does it," Howard Gleckman, editor of the blog TaxVox, wrote in a recent blog post.
"Health-care have-nots," Kaiser Health News, January 4, 2010

The Senate bill would cost less -- and be less generous -- than the House's on several measures, including subsidies. A study by the Urban Institute last month found that the poorest and sickest families qualifying for subsidies under the Senate bill could end up paying as much as 13.4 percent of their income on health care, nearly double the 7.6 percent under the House version.
"IRS Faces Tough New Duties Under Health Overhaul," Kaiser Health News, January 4, 2010

Howard Gleckman, of the Urban Institute, sees the IRS's proposed new role [in the health care reform] as a part of a historical pattern. "We are always asking the IRS to do all kinds of social engineering," he said, such as tax credits for new homeowners and renewable energy firms.
"More choices for Baltimore 8th-graders," Baltimore Sun, January 3, 2010

In the meantime, the school district opened five small "innovation" high schools run by outside operators who had a particular design or plan for how to help urban students, the majority of whom come to high school with fifth-grade skills. The district rigorously reviewed each operator's plan before allowing the schools to open. Each school had a year of planning and started small with just a ninth grade, then added another grade each year. Attendance and graduation rates have all been better for those schools, according to a report done by the Urban Institute two years ago.
"With estate tax dead for 2010, now is time for rich to kick the bucket tax free," New York Daily News, January 3, 2010

"Come the new year," explained Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, "rich folks will have a 12-month window in which to die tax-free."
"Program for Children Has Uncertain Future," The New York Times, Prescriptions blog, January 3, 2010

"Attention must be paid to the possibility that some children who lose CHIP coverage could fall through the cracks and become uninsured," Genevieve M. Kenney and Allison Cook wrote last month in a brief prepared for the Urban Institute, the Washington research group.
"Harmony Oaks residents council makes good health a priority," Times-Picayune (New Orleans), January 2, 2010

The efforts are bolstered by data from national Urban Institute researchers, who have for eight years followed residents of five distressed public-housing developments in other cities rebuilt through the federal HOPE VI program. One of the researchers leading the project, Susan Popkin, now calls poor health "the biggest challenge" facing public-housing residents.
"Immigration law ignites fear in Arizona," Los Angeles Times, January 1, 2010

"A 2002 study by the Urban Institute found that illegal-immigrant families used benefits at a far lower rate than native-born ones -- for example, 11% of illegal-immigrant families in Los Angeles County used food stamps, compared with 33% of low-income native-born ones.