Publications on Workplace & Industry Studies

Boomers will probably want to work longer than earlier cohorts, but their continued work requires that employers hire and retain them. Employers value older workers for their maturity, experience and work ethic, but worry about out of date skills and high costs. Slower overall labor supply growth will increase demand for older workers and occupations with higher shares of older workers will increase modestly as a share of all jobs. Future jobs will require less physical demands and more cognitive and interpersonal skills, trends that favor educated older workers, but job opportunities for less educated older workers may remain limited.

The occupations that already employ above-average shares of workers age 55 and older rely on an educated workforce and are expected to grow at least 20 percent by 2016, double the 10 percent rate forecast for the national labor force. A new study examines how changes in the nature of work, different occupations, the characteristics of older workers, and overall labor force growth might affect future job prospects for older Americans.

About 7 percent of American workers held highly physically demanding jobs in 2006, and 35 percent held highly cognitively demanding jobs. The share of the workforce in physically demanding jobs fell by about one-sixth between 1971 and 2006, while the share in cognitively demanding jobs increased by more than one-third. Stressful occupations also grew rapidly over the past 35 years. The decline in physically demanding occupations will likely improve employment prospects for older adults, but the growth in cognitive demands may limit options for some older people, especially those with limited education.

This paper, written for the Workforce Alliance in Washington, D.C., analyzes data on recent employment and wage trends, as well as projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, to analyze the likely future demand for workers in "middle-skill" jobs –- i.e., those requiring more than secondary school but less than a bachelor's degree. Contrary to recent assertions that demand for middle-skill jobs will shrink dramatically (creating an "hourglass" or "dumbbell" labor market), we find that demand for such jobs will remain quite robust. The growth in supply of workers with these skills will also likely shrink as baby boomers retire and are replaced by immigrants. Thus, education and training programs that help less-educated workers gain these skills remain a worthwhile investment.

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As the U.S. population ages and the number of people reaching traditional retirement ages increases, employers need to do more to attract and retain older workers, many of whom are highly experienced, knowledgeable, and skilled. Successful approaches include offering formal and informal phased retirement options and creating flexible work arrangements, such as part-time work, flexible schedules, job sharing, telework arrangements, and snowbird programs. Federal, state, and local governments, as well as nonprofit organizations and post-secondary educational institutions, help older workers find employment and secure job training. They also educate employers about the value of older workers.